HireVue Q3 Report: Inflation Effects On The Job Market

Whether I’m on the sidelines at my kid’s soccer game or picking up weeknight groceries, folks I know stop me to ask some variation of, “What’s the deal with hiring, the economy and the possibility of recession?” 

My quick summary at soccer games, to industry leaders and to HireVue readers alike is that the economy is cooling but not cold and the job market is still robust. To drill down one level: 

• I maintain my somewhere-in-the-middle feelings about the possibility of recession (we’re not there yet) 
• Inflation continues to increase around the world and the all-consuming goal of central bankers is to slow it down
• The job market and wage growth is still strong – even with the expected slow down triggered by interest rate hikes 
• Lastly, we’re likely to see more rate increases due to persistent inflation  

The HireVue Numbers for Q3

We’re really pleased to see that our top-line volume metrics continued their positive momentum in the third quarter of the year. This includes: 

• 18 million text and chat messages – another 1 million message increase
• 2 million interviews – up from 1.8 million in Q2
• Over 600,000 assessments – holding steady from Q2
• 50% of interviews continue to happen after hours or on weekends – this stable number signals to us that flexibility continues to be paramount for job seekers

Despite the battering that hospitality and leisure took over the last two years, these sectors continued to add jobs in the latest jobs report, and this bears out in our numbers. Our airline customers have all ramped up or remained steady with their volume, and a major cruise line partner has continued their steady drum beat of re-staffing efforts.  

Seasonal hiring is underway

September and October are peak seasonal hiring months, and we’re seeing our expected increase in holiday hiring amongst our customers. 

• We saw a 168% increase in interviews in the consumer goods sector that was driven by a hiring campaign from a beloved apparel and footwear brand. 
• And our retail segment was up 10% due to hiring from companies that include a major outdoor retailer and department stores. 

An interesting effect on seasonal hiring and shopping in 2022 is the way inflation will cause consumers to spread out their shopping over months to accommodate tighter budgets and hunting for deals. PeopleReady predicts that this longer buying cycle will force companies to lengthen the tenure of their seasonal hiring staff – a prediction that I agree with as we’ve seen a steady uptick in holiday hiring volume over September and October. We’re also seeing greater diversity in the type of roles needed for seasonal hiring due to the persistence of curbside pickup and delivery options from retailers who previously relied primarily on in-store foot traffic (e.g. personal shoppers and delivery drivers). 

Looking ahead 

I want to take a moment to acknowledge that inflation, particularly related to food costs and energy in Europe, are causing serious uncertainty and anguish around the world for many demographics. My less-than-grim reading of the overall current hiring and economic picture is in no way meant to diminish the very real hardship many people are facing. Rather, I want to direct this quarter’s blog post at my fellow leaders, investors, and forecasters: it’s not all doom and gloom out there, and a not insignificant part of getting inflation under control is changing the public’s perception of the economic moment. 

We’re experiencing serious recalibration and navigating uncertainty. But look to the good: wages are still high, savings aren’t dried up, unions are being formed, and hiring continues. 

Let’s take what we know about the current moment and help future-proof your hiring needs. Talk with one of our experts to stay ahead of the curve in the race for talent.